Cabin Weekend

Ben's parents sent us a sum of money for Christmas with one restriction: it had to be used to build a family memory. You don't have to ask us twice! We found this amazing cabin rental in New Hampshire, referred to us by one of my piano student's parents. We felt like it was truly a hidden gem. It's located right above Lake Winnipesaukee, and just outside the backyard is this retired ski run that we were able to use as a sledding hill. It was a DREAM for a winter retreat! The best part: it was big enough to hold three families and was only $150/night total. We loved just sitting around relaxing with friends, letting the kids run wild, playing games, sledding, eating, talking, laughing. This is my kind of vacation! I'm pretty sure it will become a tradition for us. As you can see from the pictures, we didn't get as much snow as we had hoped, but it was just enough for the 4 and under crowd. These pictures were taken just as everyone was getting worn out and the snow was starting to melt. We'll hope for better snow next year!

32 Ways to Play with Your Child Today

I am horrible at playing with my kids. I can only handle so many traffic jams and voyages across the sea on the U.F.S. ship before I am making up excuses and sneaking off to do something else. This leads to great amounts of guilt, yes. I wish I was better at this! Here's what I discovered about myself though: I really like playing with my kids if there is some structure to it, and I do feel that spending time having fun together is SO important! Also, if there is a set time for our playing together each day, everyone seems happier and looks forward to it.

After Ellis was born, we invented "Mommy School" as a way for Henry & I to get to spend positive time together. We did reading practice, coloring/tracing practice, and then the Mommy School activity. It was nice to have a special time scheduled into each day (we did it right after lunch) to spend together. Since Henry started Joy School, we haven't been as religious about Mommy School, but we still enjoy doing letter-writing practice when we can, and we still love the activities. JoDee emailed me recently asking for ideas on what to do for the activities. I typed them up in response to her, and thought it wouldn't hurt to post them here.

I kept ideas like this folded up on pieces of paper in a jar, and we could choose one each day. The rule: the ideas had to be simple enough to gather materials and prepare for it in less than 2 minutes. Most of them involve objects you probably have lying around your house. I'm looking for new, similar ideas, if you'd like to share them! I'll give you my 32 if you'll leave an idea or two in the comment section. Deal?

Here are the ideas (gathered from everywhere, from Joy School to Real Simple to the I Can Trace books):

1. Sorting (different colored beans, goldfish, whatever you have) into different cups
2. Stringing pasta or cereal to make a necklace
3. Lace ups
4. Rainbow name (write their name and trace the outline in different colors, like a rainbow)
5. Play dough
6. Typing letters
7. Tweezers/Tongs (moving objects from one bowl or basket to another with tweezers or tongs)
8. Ball/sports
9. Stickers
10. Giant drawing (trace their body and draw a life-size kid)
11. Boggle or Scrabble letters
12. Dominoes
13. Will it float? (have the child gather objects and then guess if they'll sink or float)
14. Follow the leader (sing the Peter Pan song while marching around the house, taking turns being leader)
15. Plant seeds
16. Where's my lid? (give a bunch of containers and lids and have them match them up)
17. Play a game
18. Color mixing (with cups of water and food coloring)
19. Concentration/Memory (play the game or create your own)
20. Bubbles
21. Pbskids.org
22. Fingers and toes (trace fingers and toes and color pictures of them)
23. Hide & seek surprises (have them open containers with screw-off lids with a surprise - toys you already have or tiny treats - inside)
24. "Piano lessons"
25. Bowling (make bowling pins out of household items and bowl)
26. Go for a discovery walk
27. Blanket fort
28. Story writing (have child dictate a story to you; draw or take pictures to illustrate)
29. Paper toys (print, fold, and glue a toy free from The Toy Maker or Paper Toys.
30. Blow bubbles in a cup (using a small amount of dishsoap in water, blowing with a straw!)
31. Finger-paint (with shaving foam, pudding, ketchup, or dishwasher detergent mixed with water)
32. Paint the sidewalk (with a bucket of water and paint brushes)

Scripture Power Primary Activity

I am serving in the Primary presidency in our ward right now (translation: working with the children of our church congregation). It's a fun calling that I'm really loving! I'm beginning to wonder lately if my official title should be changed from "Primary first counselor" to "Primary graphic designer." I've really enjoy pulling my rusty old Corel Draw skills out of my 1996 pocket and putting them to some use! Luckily, there is now a nearly identical freeware program called Inkscape that is much more up to date. Heaven forbid I should have to actually learn a new program! [is that how you use the phrase "heaven forbid?"]

So. Long story short. We had a fabulous quarterly activity themed "Scripture Power," focusing on how the kids can get power from learning about the scriptures. They received super hero capes with the scripture power logo on them. Then they went to stations, where they learned scripture stories and did some high-energy activities. At each station, they earned an iron-on emblem for their capes. It was super cute to see them all in their capes. Here is Henry in his.

AND let's not forget the big news. I created (half traced, half created) my first clipart! It can be found here at none other than Sugardoodle.net. Perhaps someday you can find the entire activity idea there. Who really gets around to sharing their activity ideas with others?

Henry's Tag Sale

After reading this book, Henry had a vision. He couldn't stop talking about how he wanted to have his very own Tag Sale, inviting all of his friends. The friends would all bring toys they no longer wanted, and then the kids would sell their toys to each other. "Sure," I said, "We can do that." "Okay," Henry replied, "When should everyone come? After lunch today?"

It took a little more advanced planning than that, but we worked together to pull off Henry's dream. Here's how it worked:

Upon arrival, every child was given an envelope in exchange for 5-10 unwanted toys and books. The envelope contained a set amount of play money, price tag labels for their toys (with pre-set amounts on them), and a number indicating which group they would be in.

Then the kids looked at the toys they brought, ranked them from best to worst, affixed the price tags, and dropped them in corresponding baskets.

Then, we purchased lunch. Each family brought one healthy food and one snack food, which were sold for $1 each.

There were some pretty amazing treats, like Christy's chocolate-dipped marshmallows (and other marshmallows dipped in white chocolate, caramel, and Rice Krispies). Yum!

After lunch, the store opened! Kids came to the store in groups and got to pick out new toys! Hooray for new toys!

I give Henry 100% credit for this fabulous idea. I'm glad to have a little dreamer for a son. He's got the party planning vision, which is very important.

Post Scripts, Answers, Updates

to the previous few posts:

1. Shortly after that "Kid's Music" post, Henry asked to hear Baby Beluga again. And again. Then we used several of the songs at Joy School today. Raffi is starting to grow on me. There is definitely a place for it -- it seemed the perfect soundtrack to set the mood for a kids' party or a morning of at-home adventures.

Although I never regret that my 3-year-old used to sing "Screaming Infidelities" in public.

2. The birthday banner in my birthday post came from my awesome friend Jenni Wahlen Davis. Made with her Cricut machine. What a fabulous birthday present. Yes, it is still hanging up. Right up there with my Valentine's Day decorations.

3. I am still a hard core believer in my REVOLUTION. That's not to say that I'm perfect at keeping my schedule (the Olympics were hard for me!). But I know that every time I give in to watching those figure skaters until midnight, I'm kicking myself the next morning. Still working on it.

MBA vs. Ph.D.

As part of my program, I have to take six MBA courses. I've got my first one, Consumer Finance, right now. In the back of my head, I sort of figured that MBA classes would be similar to my Ph.D. classes, just less technical. Boy, was I wrong. Imagine you are enrolled in a typical MBA or Ph.D. class at Harvard. Here's what you'd get:

MBA: Before the semester begins, you get a packet of materials, all printed up for you in booklet form, and neatly tied together with white string. They deliver it to your personalized, combination-locked mailbox.

Ph.D.: You're lucky if your professor made any sort of class notes or slides before class. It's definitely up to you to print them out.

MBA: You walk in to a classroom trimmed with darkly stained wood. There is stadium seating, and each student gets a swivel chair as well as a laminated name card. All in all, it kind of looks like the U.N.

Ph.D.: Your classroom probably looks a bit like it came from Dead Poets Society. Nothing wrong with that, of course. It's just that a building should be updated every 50 years or so. Your seat will be squeaky and uncomfortable, and your desk will most likely be wobbly. And, you might not get a seat at all, since there is no cap on the number of people that can take the course.

MBA: Your fellow students are well-dressed, attractive, and boisterous. They have names like Carmine and Chas.

Ph.D.: The room is uncomfortably silent when you walk in, even though most of students are there already. As you look around, you might describe them as frumpy and a bit unkempt. They have names like Ugo and Raluca.

MBA: Class starts right on the hour. Everyone has read the business case you are going over beforehand. The professor begins: "You are Scott Jones, the CEO of First National Bank. If you think you should create lottery-based savings accounts at your bank, press A. If not, press B." On your desk in front of you there are four multiple-choice buttons encased in a brass frame, and as the students press their choice the professor can see their responses in real time on his computer in the front of the class.

Ph.D.: Class starts seven minutes after the hour. This is not because anyone is late; class always begins at seven minutes after the hour. They've been doing it that way for years and years. The professor begins (read with a French accent): "Where are ze chalks? Zere is no chalks!" The only thing on hand is sidewalk chalk. No one knows why there is sidewalk chalk in the classroom, but that's all there is, so the professor uses it. He dives in to writing equations on the three chalkboards that line the front of the room. It's a model of choice under uncertainty.

MBA: Half of your grade is participation, and as the class progresses there are so many comments that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the professor to even get a word in edgewise. Students all have their own strategies for getting called on so that they can get their participation points for the day. Some of the comments are good, but a lot aren't. Slowly, you crank through the case, viewing the decision of Scott Jones from every possible angle.

Ph.D.: The chalkboards are all full, so the professor grabs an eraser. He's been teaching for 15 years, but he still isn't quite sure which side of the eraser erases the best. He guesses wrong, using the back of the eraser to try to wipe the board clean, but it doesn't make much difference because sidewalk chalk doesn't erase very well anyway. He does his best, but from this point on you can't really make out the gammas from the deltas on the board, and the lecture becomes almost impossible to follow.

MBA: The chalkboards are all full (but not with Greek letters!), so the professor hits a button and the board rises to reveal another set of boards below, all immaculately clean. The discussion continues, reaching no real conclusion...

Ph.D.: The model is almost solved now, and you get the intuition, but you're wondering in the back of your head how on earth you are going to figure out how to mathematically solve these models for your problem set that is due next week. You hope that this is in one of the textbooks that are weighing down your shelves at your office...

MBA: By the end of the case, it is no more clear than at the start whether lottery-linked savings accounts are a good idea or not. But you've sure talked about it a lot, even if you haven't learned a thing. The professor uses the touch-screen at the front of the room to dim the front lights and lower the screen to display his Powerpoint slides showing the actual outcome of the case. Class gets over, and everyone applauds the professor.

Ph.D.: Class is nearly over. The professor realizes that he only made it through half of what he was supposed to get through, so he rushes through the end, taking derivatives in his head and spitting out the results faster than you can write them down. You are comforted by the fact that there is a right answer, even though you're not quite sure how to get there yourself. When the professor stops, everyone silently shuffles out the door.

Okay, so maybe there are a few stereotypes and broad generalizations in there. :) But seriously, this isn't far off from the truth! In fact, none of what I wrote above is made up. All of that has happened to me. The two worlds are so vastly different, I can't even explain it. The things is, even though the MBA classes are much more entertaining, I also come away from them wondering if I've really learned anything. It's a bit of a toss-up as to which one I prefer, to be honest. However, as far as teaching goes, I'd much rather teach the MBA class!

Kids' Music

A little voice in the back of my head always tells me that to be a good mom, I need to provide music by children's artists for my kids to listen to. I am on this eternal, yet impossible quest to find a decent collection of children's music that is not annoying. So . . . I brought some samples home from the library a few days ago, and I've been trying to play a little Raffi, Dan Zanes, and Debbie & Friends here and there.

This morning as Raffi was playing, Henry asked, "Why can't we just listen to music like Ben Folds and Regina Spektor?"

Oh really? Well then, let me think about that for a while . . .

Sure, why not?

That's one little voice down; many little voices to go.

REVOLUTION: My Newly Organized Life

First, let me paint you a picture of my previous life:

6:45am Roll over in bed and say, "Oh, no! Could that really be Ellis? Already?"

7:00am Give in, get up, go downstairs with Ellis. Attempt to mix scripture study with catering to Ellis' grumpy morning wishes. Read a sentence. Get up and get some more Life cereal [side note: he calls it "die" instead of Life, which I find to be hilariously ironic]. Read another sentence. Get up and get a sippy cup and fill it with milk. Read a few sentences. Make cinnamon toast and break it into pieces. Read a little more. Pick up the toast and crushed Life cereal that is now all over the floor. Wipe up the spilled milk trail following the flung sippy cup. Repeat several times.

7:45am Breakfast with the boys; fill breakfast bowls with water to soak, then:

turn on the computer

check email

check all the stuff related to the emails I got

see if there's anything else to check

check the weather

get Ellis dressed

do stuff (who knows what it is?)

attempt to exercise (M, W, F)

attempt my goal of 20 minutes of morning cleaning (maybe)

check email again

talk to boys

look at stuff

9:30 take shower, get dressed

10:45 Aah! I'm supposed to be somewhere at 11:00! Do hair, do makeup, get shoes on, get boys' shoes on, gather stuff for diaper bag, get mad at Henry for being so SLOW, rush out to car, run back into house to get glasses, get to "somewhere" at least 15 minutes late.

The rest of the day:

try to tackle to-do list

check lots of stuff on the computer

take care of boys, alternating with ignoring the boys so I can get stuff done

feel guilty for not reading stories

wonder why Ellis is so ornery

5:15pm think about making dinner, scramble something together while fighting off the fussy kids

5:45pm Ben is home!

6:15 eat dinner, tackle the huge pile of dishes from the day

7:25 finish dishes -- aah! It's jammie time already? Feel guilty for not having any family fun time before bed. Sometimes do the family fun time and get the kids to bed late; sometimes skip family fun and just work on bedtime. Spend at least 20 minutes cleaning up the toys that are scattered EVERYWHERE.

8:00-8:45 tuck Henry in bed

sit on the couch, exhausted, for a while

play with Ben

realize I have a bunch of stuff to do that I never did get done during the day

work on "stuff" until way too late

go to bed, feeling guilty and knowing that it's going to be really hard to wake up tomorrow

OKAY, so maybe when I lay it all out there before you, it's easy for you to see what all of my problems were. But it took me a couple of years to figure it out!

Anyway, thanks to a motherhood workshop at my church, talking to friends, reading ideas from flylady.net, and what I believe to be personal revelation, I have finally had my wake-up call and REVOLUTION! Goodbye to crazy life; hello to organization, peace, and lots more fun.

Here's my new schedule:

10:30 the night before: GO TO BED!!!! NO MATTER WHAT!!!

6:15am wake up

get dressed ALL THE WAY TO TYING MY SHOES (on M, W, F I dress in workout clothes)

daily devotional: prayer and gospel study (hopefully without Ellis)

7:00am breakfast with my boys (Henry is required to be dressed!)

do breakfast dishes, then:

* Make daily to-do list and prioritize goals

*20 minute clean-up (set timer for 20 minutes and first de-clutter everywhere; if there's extra time I do one extra thing, like dusting, sweeping, mopping, vacuuming, etc. Sometimes I do 30 minutes)

*MAKE DINNER (at least as much as possible)

*Shower, do hair and make-up

RULE: ALL OF THESE THINGS MUST BE DONE BEFORE TURNING ON THE COMPUTER! I cannot face my computer until I'm ready to face the world AND have dinner, clean-up, and to-do list done!

The rest of the day:

Go about daily to-do list, knowing that the essentials are already done

take regular breaks to enjoy being with the boys

12:ish Have lunch and then clean up dishes immediately

3:00ish (and one other time, earlier, if we are home): the bell rings and it is CLEAN-UP time! We set the timer for 6-8 minutes, and anything we don't clean up in that time will be eaten by the Gunny Bag (thank you, Joy School!). Henry is amazing at clean-up help under this plan, and then immediately afterward, both boys get to choose a book or two to read

STORY TIME!

Play together, read, work on more to-do's.

Put prepared dinner in the oven

5:00 play with Ellis at his cranky time, read more books

5:45 Ben is home! Dinner is ready and the house is not a disaster!

5:50 eat dinner, do dishes (they take half as long as they used to)

Family Fun time!

7:25 Bell rings; Gunny Bag coming in 10 minutes -- clean up!

7:35 Bedtime routine

Before 8:00 Both boys are in bed

Relax together, finish up "stuff," and of course,

BE SURE TO GO TO BED ON TIME (this is the hardest part, but it is the one that makes everything else work)!

Maybe most of you were already following a pattern similar to this, but it has been revolutionary for me. I feel so good and feel such a difference in the feeling in our home. The elements that are making the most difference are:

1. Getting dressed first thing, all the way to the shoes, is a big deal. It means that I immediately start my day ready to tackle it. I am not lounging around in my pajamas, and therefore I don't act like I'm having a pajama party! My shoes are on, so I have no excuses for why I can't take the garbage out or change a load of laundry in the basement.

2. Having solitude for my daily devotional (thanks to waking up early) makes it more effective and thus makes me a better person throughout the day.

3. Having a clean start to the day feels so good! 20 minutes in the morning makes it so the clutter never gets out of control.

4. Dinner in the morning -- I used to make fun of people who did this. Now I LOVE it! Of course it makes sense to make dinner when the kids are not cranky yet. It is so liberating to not be scrambling at 5:00 every night! I feel like I have a personal chef putting ready-made meals in my fridge every day. Not sure how it feels like that, but it does.

5. The no-computer rule is making a huge difference! It is SO hard for me to not turn it on. A couple of times I have asked Ben to please check my email because I desperately needed to know something. BUT, that motivates me to work faster. And I find that once my essentials are done and my task list is made, I am much more efficient with my computer time when I do get on. Not nearly as much meaningless clicking.

6. Doing the dishes after each meal is so much easier than I ever thought it would be! Our deal when we got married was that Ben would do the dishes and I would do the cooking. I have taken full advantage of that and formed a nasty habit of leaving huge piles of dishes for Ben to do in the evenings. The result of doing a little after each meal is that we have more family fun time at night, and the boys get to bed on time. And doing a few dishes is NOT hard! So worth it!

7. Likewise, cleaning up toys a little at a time is so beautiful. When Henry was about 18 months, I gave up on cleaning up during the day and decided it wasn't worth following him around all day. We formed the habit of just letting all of the toys pile up and then having 30 minutes' worth of clean-up at night. Not fun! I LOVE having a set time of day and a set routine for clean-up time. I am amazed that ringing a bell is enough of a signal and that no one argues that they don't want to clean up. It feels good to clean up, and the best part of it is . . . clean up time is linked to story time! So we all know we will be rewarded for cleaning. So lovely. And again . . . this leads to much more family fun time at night!

Again, I realize that most of my discoveries will seem primitive to you wonderful home organizers out there, which is probably everyone but me. But I wondered if someone out there might benefit from a few simple ideas that have been working for me. Oh, and I thought I owed an explanation to anyone who expects me to answer an email before 10:00 in the morning. Not gonna happen anymore, people! I'm a new woman!

For My Birthday

For my birthday, I got to:

1. Attend a fun Valentine playdate with the kids.

2. Eat the most amazing red velvet cake cheesecake, among other fabulous food, at the Cheesecake Factory with my three boys.

3. Play with pretty Valentiney paper.

4. Play with my new camera! {Please do not judge my photography skills; I'm not trying to become a professional photographer at all . . . I'm just really excited to have a camera that helps me make beautiful, non-blurry, non-washed-out pictures.}

Hooray!

Here are Martha's directions for this fun heart craft. Happy day after Valentine's day, everyone! And happy 4 days after my birthday, of course!

We've had a pretty mild winter . . .

. . . except for the day Ben came home looking like this. Ooh, it can be pretty bad, walking up our giant hill when the snow is coming down hard and the wind is blowing. We have had a few pretty bad storms. But it really seems like, so far, this year is much milder than last year*. We haven't broken out the shovel in over a month! Maybe Ben, who braves the weather much more frequently than I do, would have a different opinion about this winter.

[*Note: Yes, I just knocked on wood, just in case.]

Made this for Katie & Mike

two months ago. It was fun cutting all that grass.

Christmas Revisited

So it's about that time of year again . . . time for me to deliver the "Attention: Did you know Christmas is Over?" notices to all of my neighbors' doors! In years past, I have thought to myself, "Could it really be that hard to take a wreath down and put it inside?" Now, the beam is in my eye as I present to you . . .

My better late than never Christmas post! We'll keep it short and sweet. These are a few highlights of our trip to Utah this year. Really, just the things we happened to take pictures of:

Brady hosting the first annual Guess Who? Tournament for New Year's Eve. I couldn't believe he really went through with the entire bracket system! It was actually pretty fun . . . although I still feel that I was cheated out of winning :)

The four of us, all in our Threadless T-shirts. Tanner is currently obsessed with this hilarious T-shirt website, and the rest of us are starting to catch on. Come to think of it, Kati may be obsessed as well. Her shirt says, "If your pants are on fire, being a liar becomes less important." Mine says, "Haikus are easy/but sometimes they don't make sense/refrigerator." Brady's doesn't say anything, but it's the best looking tv set you never knew you wanted. Tanner's is a Scrabble bench with the letters Q, X, W, V, W, Z, and V on it.

Get-together at Jacob's with Dave, Amy, Jacob, and Robbie. We had a blast and laughed so hard this night!

This is our only picture of either of the boys from our Christmas trip (we were really bad with the camera, apparently). I love this one though because we have an almost identical one of Ben, which appears in our wedding video. I really need to track that picture down!

And now for the projects! I was really in a project mood on this trip, and I roped my family into doing all of them with me! Good thing they are good sports (and good thing my dad is an amazing woodworker). This is the beginnings of a wood-burning project that I hope to finish and post here sooner rather than later. I am SO excited about doing it!

Mom and I are both serving in Primary, so we made our yearly music CD's together, as well as these amazing books for teaching this year's new song.

The birthday calendars! I saw something like this at Anthropologie for like $25. We made 6 of them for $20. I am so excited to have all of the important birthdays in one place and to not have to write them on the calendar again every year.

Hiatus

Everybody needs one every once in a while, I guess. For about 39 reasons (one of them pictured above), I just needed a break from blogging. A 2-month break, to be exact (with the exception of one Henry quote a couple of weeks ago). And it felt pretty good! Now I'm ready to get back into it. My life has been thrown around in circles and completely reorganized (more on that later, hopefully), and now I'm ready to face you all again. More blogging soon, I hope!

And I Quote . . .

"I want to marry someone named Honkfrensen Henry, so then my name can be 'Henry Henry.'"

Two Videos

My last post was pretty heavy, so I thought I'd better post some lighter fare. Here's a video of some of Ellis' latest words (although while we've been in Utah he's picked up some more!). He's got a great little sound he makes with his nose. Listen for it when he says "shoe" and "drink." The best we can spell it is "k-hng." Enjoy!

Ellis' Words from Ben and Jenn on Vimeo.

And here's Henry's latest production: An exercise video! Yes, he came up with the idea all on his own, and invented his own moves as well. I think he chose a great back-up exerciser as well. :) Follow this routine everyday, and I can guarantee results...of some sort.

Henry's Exercise Video from Ben and Jenn on Vimeo.

Investing Advice

Another semester has gone by, and I'm that much closer to finishing my Ph.D. program. I've only got one more semester of doctoral coursework left, and then next year I'll have to take 6 MBA courses to be completely done with classes for the rest of my life. After that, I'll just have to write a dissertation to be done! No sweat, right? :)

Anyway, it was a great semester. Not only did I get my best grades so far at Harvard (woohoo!), but I felt like I actually learned lots of useful stuff. Even better, a couple of the things I learned might even be useful to non-economists as well. You see, before this semester, people often asked me about when to put their money in the stock market and other such investing questions, but I didn't really know that much about investing so I always felt like I wasn't qualified to say much. This past semester I had a whole class on asset pricing, which made me feel slightly more competent in answering this type of question. So I thought I'd pass along a few tidbits that might be of interest.

***DISCLAIMER 1***

This is a nerd post. I think it's a useful nerd post because it gives some advice on how to manage your money. But it's still a nerd post. Don't feel obligated to read it.

***DISCLAIMER 2***

What you are about to read is based on historical data. When predicting stock prices, the best anyone can do is use historical data (and economic theory) to forecast future movements, but it is impossible to perfectly predict the market. In fact, even the best investment managers aren't all that accurate with their predictions. Investing (in any market) is always risky. My advice is just some broad generalizations that have proven to be good ideas in the past. That doesn't mean you will automatically make money if you follow it.

Okay, with that out of the way, here are 4 tips on managing your money:

1. The stock market is predictable: How many of you have always been told that you can't predict the market? I know I have been told that lots of times. To some extent it's true. If you're trying to predict whether the market will rise or fall tomorrow, you've got about a 50/50 chance of getting it right. But here's the thing: the market is predictable at longer horizons, say, 3-5 years. How can you predict it? By using a financial ratio like the price-earnings (P/E) ratio. The idea behind these ratios is simple. If stock prices are really high relative to how much a company is earning, then you'd guess that the price is going to come back down. In the long run, these ratios are mean-reverting. If the P/E ratio is too high, it's because either (a) prices are too high or (b) earnings are going to rise a lot in the future (they are too low right now). Historically, earnings are pretty stable, so the answer is nearly always (a). Thus, if the P/E ratio is a lot higher than its average value, you can expect stock prices to fall over the next 3-5 years. So, if you're looking for a good time to put more money in the market, check out the P/E raito. If it's high, I'd wait a while. If it's low, maybe it is a good time to put some money in. Lucky for all of us, a financial economist from Yale (Robert Shiller) collects this data and puts it on his website here (download the excel file in the paragraph that says "Stock Market Data", then look at figure 1.3 in the excel file). Right now, the P/E ratio is 20.12, a bit over the historical average. So, at the moment, I'd call it a neutral market.

It's important to remember that you are looking at a longer horizon. Just because the P/E ratio is low today, that doesn't mean it won't go lower before it comes back up. That means that you might see a low P/E ratio, put money in the market, then lose money as prices fall even further before they come back up again. Sometimes you have to ride these times out before you make money. In other words, don't try to use the P/E ratio to predict where the market will be one year from now; it doesn't work. And, if you're looking for a quick place to make money, don't try the stock market.

I also want to point out that these financial ratios account for only about 60% of long-term stock price variation. That means that the other 40% could go any which way. 60% is pretty good, actually (way better than the 0% you get when trying to predict the market tomorrow!), but there is obviously still some risk involved in these bets.

2. Diversify: I'm hoping that everyone has heard that you have to diversify. Unless you are a professional investment manager, the most effective way to diversify is to invest in stock market indexes like the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000, which allow you to buy 500 or 2000 stocks all at once. There are also indexes for particular sectors of the market (e.g. financial indexes, technology indexes, manufacturing indexes, etc.). Picking individual stocks that you think are going to do well is generally not worth it, in my opinion. If you have a lot of time on your hands, you could try to do it, but it's much riskier and very hard to do.

One way to diversify that people might not think about as much is to put less of your money in the industry you work in, particularly in your own employer if you work for a public company. For example, say I worked for Enron in 2000. If I had put all of my retirement in to Enron stock (as many Enron employees did), I would have lost my job and my entire retirement by 2002. Bad idea. Another, less extreme, example: Say I work for a financial company. It would be smart to put less of my money in financial stocks since when those stock prices go down I am also more likely to lose my job, take a pay cut, or get a smaller bonus. By diversifying away from your job, you protect your wealth a bit better.

3. Rebalance: Let's say you take a look at the P/E ratio and it's relatively low (say, 13) so you increase the portion of your retirement wealth in the stock market from 50% to 60%. To keep things simple, let's say that the you've got the other 40% in a savings account (in reality, you'd probably have most of it in bonds or other such investments). Now suppose that stock prices drop even further, so that the P/E ratio is now at 10. Do you still have 60% of your portfolio in stocks? No. Since stock prices have fallen, that portion of your portfolio is worth less than before, so you now have less than 60% in stocks. What should you do? Take even more money out of your savings account and put it in the market to get back to (at least) 60%. You might even want to put more than 60% in the market since the P/E ratio is even lower than it was before. This process is called rebalancing. This is hard for many people to do; if you've just lost money in the stock market, it's hard to want to put more in. But that's exactly when you should be putting more in, since the investment opportunity is even better.

4. Refinance: I was surprised to learn in my class that many people fail to refinance their mortgages when mortgage rates drop well below their current rate. It's worth it to check out mortgage rates from time to time to determine if you should refinance. A good rule of thumb is to refinance when current mortgage rates are 1% lower than the rate you pay. Over time, you can save a lot of money just by paying a little bit of attention to mortgage rates.

Christmas Highlights

Sing-along with our musical friends. This is one of my favorite holiday festivities EVER! We sang mostly duets from this fabulous book, drank hot chocolate, and ate yummy treats.

The Joy School Nativity program. Henry got to be an innkeeper AND a shepherd! These kids performed their show at a nursing home, and they were so amazing that they got to do the show again for parents and charge $5 for tickets. Yes, they were that sensational!

Christmas piano recital -- for my four beginner students. It was at our house and was very cozy and magical.

I love these kids!

Christmas morning was pretty exciting around here! Henry LOVED the race track Santa brought him. That was the major highlight of the day. Don't believe me? Watch the video clip below.

Henry's first experience with the great disappointment in the toe of the stocking. "An orange? Why did Santa give me an orange?" He sat there bewildered for several minutes, and then finally asked, "What should I do with it?"

Racetrack from Ben and Jenn on Vimeo.

Balloon Birthday Party

Since Henry missed out on his birthday celebration with cousins (his birthday was over Flu-kesgiving weekend), we decided to throw a spur-of-the-moment friend birthday party for him. He made it easy on me (and our budget) by choosing a "Balloon Birthday Party." I've decided this is the perfect theme for a 4th birthday. What 4-year-old kid doesn't absolutely LOVE balloons? And besides the half-hour Ben spent feeling a little faint from blowing up so many balloons, it really didn't require much prep at all. We just bought a bunch of balloons and did some brainstorming the night before!

The cupcake cake, inspired by Family Fun and The Small Object (so simple!)

My mom sent some fun balloon-themed party goods just for the party.

The punching balls were a hit! We had the kids play with their balloons while dancing to "Move Your Arms Like Henry" by the Wiggles (thanks, Kati!). Other exhilarating games included:

• Pop the balloon and see what's inside (candy and the next game!)
• Pass the balloon relay
• Shooting rocket balloons
• Shake your sillies out
• How far can you throw it?
• Keep it up!
• Balloon movie

My favorite activity was writing letters to Santa and sending them to the North Pole on a magic helium balloon.

The kids really went for it and loved seeing the balloon take off!

I'm pretty sure this is the fastest way to get letters to the North Pole.

Here's the happy bunch!

And here's the 4-year-old himself! I've decided 4 is a really good age. I can already see so much change in him since 3. He's turning into a big kid, and the wheels in his head are really starting to spin. It's so fun to hear the ideas he comes up with. More on that in a future post. For now, I'll just say that I love this boy, and it's going to be a good year.

Flu-kesgiving

For Thanksgiving this year, we were originally planning on taking a trip down to Virginia to visit Ben's sisters for the weekend, leaving Tuesday night and returning Sunday. We thought it would be nice to spend the holiday with family, enjoying the company of some of our favorite people. Henry was thrilled about the chance to play with cousins and even celebrate his birthday with them!

But then we had a better idea. It would probably be a lot more fun to wait until Wednesday, late afternoon, when Thanksgiving traffic reached its peak of festivity, and then take a five-hour drive to Connecticut (normally a two-hour drive). When we got to Connecticut, we could stop at Friendly's for a delicious dinner, then sleep over in a hotel. Then, on the morning of Thanksgiving, we could eat a lovely Dunkin' Donuts breakfast (the only place open on Thanksgiving) before braving the traffic for our 3 1/2 hour return trip. Then we could get home around 2:00 on Thanksgiving day and sit around for the rest of the day.

Some of you may say this Plan B doesn't sound quite as great as Plan A. Some of you may argue that we could go to Friendly's and Dunkin' Donuts here in Massachusetts, without the added "hassle" of 8 1/2 hours of driving. Well, you obviously don't know how much fun it can be to stay in a Comfort Inn.

Okay, so that is what we did for Thanksgiving. But it's probably not quite how we would have planned it had we had our heads on straight. On Sunday I came down with what we think was Swine Flu, which Henry had suffered through the previous week. By Tuesday I was feeling nowhere near ready to pack for a trip to VA, so we called off our plans for the time being. By Wednesday afternoon, we were feeling so sorry for ourselves, knowing that we were going to miss Thanksgiving completely, so we decided to stock up on hand sanitizer and medical masks - so as not to infect our entire family - and we packed in an hour and got out the door. Well, as I mentioned above, we got to CT in 5 hours -- which was supposed to be 2 hours -- 1/4 of our entire drive. Worst traffic day of the year, apparently. When we stopped at Friendly's for dinner, I took Ellis out of his car seat and he was roasting. I checked his temperature, and he was a steamy 101.6 degrees. Knowing what Ellis was in for if he was only beginning his bout with the flu, and seeing the gloomy foreshadowing of horrible traffic to come, we knew we could never go the rest of the way to Virginia. Rather than suffer through traffic for another 5 hours home, we got a hotel, tried to make a party of it, and watched movies in our room until we fell asleep.

The next day when we made it home, a few friends saved the day by bringing over two plates of Thanksgiving food. We were pretty bummed about missing our trip, but the turkey and mashed potatoes helped ease the pain. I was still in serious recovery mode, and Ellis was pretty sick, so we didn't do anything major with the rest of our weekend, but we did try to make it fun, mostly for poor Henry's sake. We got a Christmas tree, made a paper chain for Christmas, and celebrated Henry's birthday with just the four of us. His birthday was on Saturday, and by that day Ellis was pretty miserable (with a double ear infection on top of the flu symptoms), so I took him to the doctor while Henry and Dad had a little one-on-one at the science museum. I actually think that was the perfect treat for Henry. Ben is his absolute favorite, and the science museum is like paradise for his curious little mind.

I am thankful for pretty paper.

And for this little 4-year-old who was very patient and understanding.

Henry is thankful that Ellis knows exactly what to get him -- yet another "Car Show" car.

Ben is thankful for Tinkertoys and mouthwash. Did you know that Ben is the only one in our family who swishes with mouthwash, and he's the only one that didn't get sick? I've heard that swishing with mouthwash regularly can prevent Swine Flu. Anyone want to argue with me on that one?